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Birth Rate / Fertility / Family Size
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| Estimated Number of Printed Pages: 18
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| TOPICS COVERED: When you're studying families, women's fertility is one of those topics that is sort of a constant drumbeat in the background. Sociologists around the world have fretted about this for decades; they want us to care. We read things like the fact that the current fertility rate in 15 European nations is so low, that the United Nations has decided it is "unprecedented in human history."* And while we were impressed by how as dramatic a statement that was, still, falling total fertility rates and replacement rates just seemed too abstract for us to get all that worked up about.
So while it was amusing to see the childless Ashley predictably blush when we'd talk about "those women" who hadn't a boatload of children by the time they were 35, other than that, both of us would just shrug as to the issue's real significance. Policymakers warn that if fertility rates continue to fall, we simply won't have enough people to do the work we need to have done. We need a national fertility rate of 2.1 just to keep the population at a constant level. It isn't just that Social Security could collapse with more retirees than workers paying into the system. That might happen too, but the experts are even more worried about the fact that they don't know who is going to be there to farm that land, work that shop, cut that red tape. Imagine a third of workforce simply gone in a few decades. That started making the issue more real for us.
But, ultimately, we realized that women like Ashley are the issue.
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| Because as a general rule, when women become literate and educational attainment rates rise, birth rates fall. That isn't just a vague policy statement that's hard to grasp. That's a real predicator of actual behavior – your wife's and your daughter's. The higher an education a woman has, the fewer the children the woman will have. That's because women getting an education will put off getting married and having children until she's finished with her education. Educated women learn about contraception and family planning, so they have less unwanted pregnancies. Even further still, education broadens their perspectives about what the world has to offer them besides being a wife and mother.** Which is why there are a number of cultures around the world consciously preventing their daughters from being educated. It isn't because they believe girls are incapable of learning. It's the reverse: they fear what the girls could accomplish if they were educated.
They're losing out. Not only are they missing the contributions those women could have made, actually, educated women also learn about how to better care for the children they already have. They spend more time, not less, with their kids. They stimulate and engage the children in ways that would never even occur to those without an education. So the good news is they're better moms. The bad news is, they might not ever be moms in the first place.
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| If the goal of educations and careers is to better provide for a family, it's pretty ironic if they are what ends up preventing you from having one. And when we had that realization is when we started worrying about birth rates. That seemed much much more important in the transformation of the family than headlines about teen pregnancy rates or unmarried mothers. So take a look at what's happening to fertility around the globe, then spend time reading about delaying marriage, education, and considering whether or not women are really becoming childless by choice. One more point to consider – the purpose, the very meaning of family has changed, and continues to evolve. I go into this a lot more in my "Halftime" chapter in Why Do We Love These People? and our memos on families as social institutions, but, basically, we used to have large families because kids were, well, to put it bluntly, productive units you needed to have on a farm, and they'd grow up to be people who felt obligated to take care of you when you were old. Now, as the very purpose for families is not to be an economic unit, but one of relationships, those smaller families will reinforce those new emotional ties. The few children we have, hopefully, we will treasure more.
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| MEMOS ON RELATED INFORMATION: Population, Demographics on Children, Mothers and Daughters, Fathers and Sons, Family Structures, Single Parents, Delaying Marriage, Single Parents (analysis), Unmarried Partners, Childless By Choice, Migration, Delaying Marriage
Links to Sources for this material are available below. Please also see The Factbook Sources page for further information regarding Factbook sources and their availability.
PAGE INDEX:
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| The fertility rates are at or under the replacement rate in every developed nation in the world, and fall as those in less-developed nations increase the literacy and educational attainment of their populations. 1.
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| However, education and literacy alone do not appear to be the sole determinant of fertility rates. For example, educational attainment has dramatically risen in some Arab and Asian nations, but the fertility rates of those nations have not changed as much as was expected. So there must be other cultural, social and economic factors may diminish or even outweigh the education factor. 2.
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| Similarly, the general theory is that a rise of women's educational attainment will delay the women's age at first childbirth. The women will put off starting a family because they are in school or in work, or perhaps it is just because the education included lessons about contraception. But literacy rates in Cuba are some of the highest in the world. And while Cuba's fertility rate is one of the lowest in the world, the increased literacy hasn't seemed to have any other effect. Conversely, the age at which women are having children is declining, when it would usually be expected to be rising. In a study of employed Cuban women, all of whom had easily available birth control and abortions, 50 percent of them had had a child before the age of 20. 3.
It must sound better in theory –
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| Actually, in many countries, women's actual fertility rate is consistently below their average desired number of children. Meaning women have less children than the number they consider to be ideal. And often, no matter what size of family the woman has, she always thinks that a larger number of children is actually the ideal. And that holds true the bigger the family she has. 4.
A moral duty –
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| There's a belief that Rwanda’s birth rate is on the increase because Rwandans believe it is their moral duty to replace the one million or so people who died during that country's genocide. 5.
"Very high"
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| The total fertility rate in Syria between 1960 and 1985, despite the fact that the illiteracy of its childbearing women had been reduced by more than 50 percent. 6.
Lebanon and Jordan, on the other hand –
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| In both Lebanon and Jordan, women's increasing educational attainment and literacy rates have seemed to have the effect of lowering fertility, and the "average number of births for a non-educated Jordanian mother is much higher than that of a mother who attended high school or received an education beyond high school." 7.
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| “Have three or more, if you can afford it” –
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| In 1970, Singapore had a fertility rate of 3.1. 8.
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| Then after two decades of a “stop at two” policy, and achieving a national fertility rate of just 1.62 – well beneath the replacement rate – Singapore announced in 1987 that families should have three or more children, if they could afford them, and then began to create family-growth policies such as tax incentives for additional children. Within three years, the fertility rate shot up by 15 percent. And the number of third births in 1990 was almost double the rate of them in 1986. 9.
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| A change in laws encourages couples to have permanent sterilization – but it is now voluntary – after having a second child, and while giving states the right to impose disincentives for those who decide to have more than two children. Among the new penalties: prohibiting those with more than two children from serving in political office. Hundreds of officials are vulnerable for dismissal, and political foes are apparently using the law to settle old scores. 10.
32 percent
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| of women in India’s Uttar Pradesh who did not agree that an Indian family should have no more than two children. Those in lower castes believe a larger number of children is ideal, while those in higher castes think a smaller family was better. Muslims wanted more children than Hindus. Women who wanted larger families were: poorly educated, the non-literate, and lower-incomes. Women who were exposed to mass media preferred a small family than those who were not (79 percent vs. 62 percent). Those who had a child die preferred a larger family (74 percent vs. 59 percent). Reasons why the women said that they shouldn't follow the two-child norm? For over half, it was the high child mortality rate. Over a third said that they needed the children's support financially – both from the income from child labor and later, to support them in old age – and the belief that children are a gift from God. 11.
In the Depression Era U.S.,
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| the grim economic situation and non-existent job prospects forced married couples were to postpone having children. By 1933, experts began warning that the U.S. population could see a drastic decrease in the coming decades if the trend continued – and that the U.S. population would only reach 195 million at the most. 12.
Theory for why Bangladesh’s fertility rate is still high –
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| Because children are considered assets in the patriarchal society, and may be considered insurance that the parents will be taken care of (by their children) when they are old. 13.
They think the Pill is the answer to increasing births? Do they know what it's for?
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| Actually, yes. But it's true. In Japan, politicians who want more women to be on the pill won't be condemned for their lack of family values; instead, they may be lauded as being "pronatalist." Here's what happened. A government council that was addressing its plummeting fertility rates found that Japanese women didn't want to marry because most of the available forms of contraception were well, for men to use. And the women had decided that if they couldn't control their own fertility, they wouldn't marry. It's sounds more than a little circular in logic, but basically the idea is, if Japanese women are sure that they don't have to get pregnant during their marriages, then they'll get married . . . and then get pregnant. 14.
"Kinder statt Inder"
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| In 49 developing countries around the world, the women of childbearing age today are having half as many children as their mothers had. In another 72 developing nations, their fertility rates have decreased by 20 percent in the past 30 years. 16.
2.1
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| The total fertility rate (“TFR”) needed for “replacement level,” meaning the number of births needed, per woman, to keep a population at a constant level. 17.
3.5
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| The U.S. TFR at the peak of the Baby Boom in the late 1950s. By the mid-1970s, the rate had fallen by half to about 1.8 births per woman. 18.
1.8
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| The U.S. TFR at the peak of the Baby Boom in the mid-1970s. 19.
2.0 to 2.1
The U.S. TFR in the 1990-2004, slightly below the replacement rate. 20.
2.08
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| The 2005 estimated total fertility rate for the U.S. 21.
6.5 per 1000
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| The 2005 U.S. infant mortality rate – 6.5 deaths at birth for every 1000 live births. 22.
The U.S. and New Zealand –
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| two of the few developed countries in the world to be at the fertility rate replacement level. And both of those are largely due to the presence of a particular ethnic group. In the U.S., it's the Hispanic population: Hispanic women had 20 percent of all births in 2002, and were the only segment of the population to exceed the replacement rate: non-Hispanic whites only had 60 percent of births, black women, 15 percent, and Asians and Pacific Islanders, just 5 percent. Similarly, in New Zealand, it's the Maori who are keeping the fertility rate above replacement level. 23.
4.1 million
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| total U.S. births in 2003. 24.
4.0 million
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| women in the U.S. give birth each year. 25.
Almost 15 percent
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| of the U.S. births in 2004 were to mothers who were not U.S. citizens. 26.
Not one
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| of the 42 countries of Europe has a fertility rates above replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. And 24 of the countries have fertility levels of 1.5 or even lower. 27.
"Too Low"
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| 39 European governments' self-critical assessment by their own nations' fertility rates. 28.
In 24 European countries,
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| one generation will only be replaced by two-thirds as many people or less. 29.
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| and they have fertility levels of 1.5 or even lower. 30.
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| An estimate on the lowest the fertility rate can go. That’s an estimate that would mean 20-30 percent of women are permanently childless, and those who have children only have one child. 31.
0.77
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| Lowest fertility rate observed: Eastern Germany in 1994. Close behind, 0.80 for the Italian province of Ferrara. 32.
8.5
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| Highest fertility rate ever observed on a national level, reported by the U.N.: Rwanda in 1975–1980, with many other African countries having rates above 8.0 during this period. 33.
10.9 – children? For every woman?? That's not a family – that's a baseball team. With a bench.
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| The highest fertility rate ever observed: 10.9 children per woman for the Hutterite community, a religious sect in the U.S., during the period of 1921–1930. Canadians in the 18th century weren't far behind, with a rate of 10.8. 34.
Spain, Bulgaria, Latvia –
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| Countries with the lowest national fertility rate in the world in 2001 – 1.1. 35.
Somalia –
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| Country with the highest national TFR in the world in 2001 – 7.3. 36.
Below One –
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| The fertility rate in some Italian regions. 37.
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| In Portugal, fertility rates from 3.0 in 1970 to 1.6 in 1990, but it remained comparatively stable in the 1990s: 1.5 in 1993, 1.4 in 1996, 1.5 in 1999. 38.
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| In 2000, fewer children were born in Finland than in any other of the past 70 years. Although its fertility rate is relatively high compared to most other European countries, it is slowly declining – from 48.5 per 1,000 women to 47.3 in 1999. 39.
Around 1.4
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| Germany's fertility rate. 40.
1.75
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| Australia's total fertility rate in 2003, down from a rate of 3.5 in 1961, and 2.8 in 1967. 41.
Three
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| India’s total fertility rate. 42.
Over five
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| The Total Fertility Rate (total fertility rate) of Bhutan, Maldives and Pakistan, 1995-2000. 43.
Over 100 out of 1000
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| Number of infant deaths per live births (the infant mortality rate) in 1970-1975 in every South Asian Country but Sri Lanka. 44.
Sri Lanka
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| the only country in South Asia to have reached the replacement level fertility with a total fertility rate of 2.1. 45.
23
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| Infant mortality rate in Sri Lanka, 1995-2000 – the only South Asian nation to go down to the 2.1 replacement rate. 46.
6.75
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| Total fertility rate in Afghanistan. 47.
164
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| Infant mortality rate in Afghanistan. 48.
1.38
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| Japanese Fertility Rate (est.) in 2004. 49.
Six
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| Total fertility rate in Palestine in 1997, "which is quite high for a country with near zero illiteracy rate." 50.
4.2
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| Total fertility rate in Kuwait in 2000, a decline from 6.6 in 1980. 51.
1.5
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| Total fertility rate in Sweden in late 1990s-2000. 52.
1.89
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| of couples in fourteenth century England were childless. For those upper-class women who had children, the average number of live births they had was five – over a course of 12 years. 54.
One out of five
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| In 1939, Science News Letter reported studies had concluded that U.S. “Childless marriages have increased to one out of every five marriages.” 55.
In the U.S., it is as common now for a woman to have no child or one child, as it was to have four or five children 30 years ago.
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| of U.S. women ages 40 to 44 in 1976 who had five or more children ever born, while another 15.8 percent had four children ever born. 56.
17.9 percent
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| of U.S. women ages 40 to 44 in 2002 had never had a child. Another 17.4 percent had had one child. 57.
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10 percent – down from 36 percent
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| 10 percent of U.S. families with children have four or more children – down from 36 percent of families with children in 1976. 58.
52 percent
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| of U.S. families with children have just one or two children in 2002 – an increase from 31 percent in 1976. 59.
44 percent
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| of all U.S. women of childbearing age –15 to 44 years old – are childless. Of these childless women, 71 percent are in the workforce. 60.
20 - 28 percent
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| The estimated percent of Australian women now in their early thirties who will be permanently childless. 61.
Almost One-Third
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| of women and men born after 1960 in Western Germany are expected to be permanently childless. 62.
A second wife
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| In the middle of the eighteenth century, over 40 percent of American women were pregnant at the time of their wedding. 64.
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| But "unmarried" doesn't mean they were single –
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| of U.S. out-of-wedlock births were to cohabiting mothers, according to results by the Fragile Families and Child Well-being survey. 65.
238,000
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| U.S. women who unmarried and gave birth in 2003-2004 were living with someone when surveyed. 66.
Almost 60 percent
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| of British women who gave birth while unmarried were living with partners. And one out of every four was married within eight years – usually to the child's father. 67.
12 percent
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| of babies born in Australia in 2001 were born to single mothers. 68.
18 percent
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| of all babies born in Australia in 2001 were by an unmarried mother who was living with the father at the time of the birth. So less than half of the babies by unmarried mothers were actually born by single mothers. 69.
Two percent
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| of babies born in Australia in 1970 were born to unmarried, cohabiting parents. 70.
18 percent
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| of babies born in Australia in 2001 were born to unmarried, cohabiting parents. 71.
Nine out of Ten
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| children were born to married parents in 1980s Czechoslovakia. 72.
But, for first children,
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| half of those Czech babies were born in the 1980s, were born less than eight months after the wedding. 73.
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| unmarried women in the U.S. gave birth in the 12-month period preceding the 2004 census, representing 32 percent of all births during this period. That's slightly below 2002 – with 1.3 million births outside of marriage. 74.
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| The percentage of births to Cuban single mothers skyrocketed from 39 percent to 61 percent in a span of 15 years, from 1973 to 1989. 75.
52 percent
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| The higher the education, the less likely a woman is to have birth outside marriage – but that is less true that it was just two years ago. Of U.S. births to unmarried women in 2004, 52 percent of births to women who did not have a high school education were to women who were also unmarried, while just nine percent of births to those with a college or post-graduate degree were also unmarried. 76.
12 percent
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| of U.S. 2002 births to women 30-to-44 years old were births to unmarried women. 77.
1.5 million
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| of U.S. births in 2004 were to unmarried women in the U.S., a record high. That is 35.7 percent of all U.S. births that year, compared to 34.6 percent in 2003 and 33 percent in 2002. 78.
50 percent
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